I predict how players will shoot on three pointers going forward on the season.
The updated projections are here.
And the original article explaining how they are computed is here.
By clicking on “Try it out here!” at the top of this post, you will be directed to what I am calling the Threes and Layups Season Simulator. As a bit of background, Dean Oliver coined the term “Four Factors” in his revolutionary book Basketball on Paper. The four factors are, shooting, turnovers, rebounding, and free throws and these factors can completely describe a game of basketball. My Threes and Layups Season Simulator allows you to not only see how any team is currently doing on the year in terms of the four factors, but also tells you what would happen to their efficiency (as measured by net rating) and their expected wins if you adjusted a part of their statistical profile!
Have you ever wondered how seriously we should take hot or cold early season three point shooting? How many attempts would it take for a player to convince us that they have reached a new level in their outside shooting?
I was wondering the same thing, so I built a simple model using the 2016-17 season three point data. If you want to read a little more about the model, go here.
Below are the current three point percentage projections for all players with at least 20 attempts, as well as how the projection has changed from the beginning of the season.