We Are One Month From The Election. How Accurate Are National Polls?

Election day is now just 30 days away. Democratic nominee Joe Biden currently has an 8 point lead in national polls over Republican nominee Donald Trump, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average. But isn’t one month still plenty of time for a comeback? How safe is Mr. Biden’s lead?

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Pennsylvania and the 2016 Urban vs. Rural Divide

I have been digging into election data recently. Specifically, the MIT Election Lab has a great dataset with the presidential election results of each county since 2000. I paired that data with a 2013 county classification scheme from the NCHS which sorts counties into groups based on how large they are and how close they are to a large metro.

I was interested in where the shifts were from the 2012 to the 2016 election. Where did Democrats lose (and gain) ground? Of course, when you lose about 2 million votes in the popular vote margin, as the Democratic candidate did from 2012 to 2016, you are doing more losing of ground than gaining of ground.

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The 2020 NBA Title Chase Still Looks Like a Three Horse Race

Way back in October, before the start of what has turned out to be a historic season, three teams stood out from the rest- the Bucks, Clippers, and Lakers. Now, nearly 10 months later and finally at the start of the Bubble Playoffs in Orlando, the same three contenders appear to have strengthened their hold on the title race.

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Insights from a close watch of Clippers at Rockets

Previously, I broke down film from the Bucks and Lakers game at the Staples Center. Now, I want to talk about what I saw from the March 5th game between the Clippers and Rockets.

Overall, this was a game Houston will want to forget. The Rockets were down 30 points midway through the 4th quarter partially due to 3 of 37 3-point shooting up to that point; they wound up cutting the final margin to 15 points in garbage time. Shooting can run hot and cold and every team throws up a clunker like this occasionally. Going beyond the score though, I think there are interesting things in the tape to break down for each side.

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Insights from a close watch of Bucks at Lakers

There is a play in the Bucks vs. Lakers game from March 6th that captures something fundamental about how Milwaukee plays on offense.  The play begins with 7:03 left in the 4th quarter, after Giannis snatches the rebound from a missed Anthony Davis jumper.  The Bucks are down 8, trying to bridge a gap created by a dominant 3rd quarter performance by LA.

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