I have been digging into election data recently. Specifically, the MIT Election Lab has a great dataset with the presidential election results of each county since 2000. I paired that data with a 2013 county classification scheme from the NCHS which sorts counties into groups based on how large they are and how close they are to a large metro.
I was interested in where the shifts were from the 2012 to the 2016 election. Where did Democrats lose (and gain) ground? Of course, when you lose about 2 million votes in the popular vote margin, as the Democratic candidate did from 2012 to 2016, you are doing more losing of ground than gaining of ground.
Continue reading “Pennsylvania and the 2016 Urban vs. Rural Divide”
Way back in October, before the start of what has turned out to be a historic season, three teams stood out from the rest- the Bucks, Clippers, and Lakers. Now, nearly 10 months later and finally at the start of the Bubble Playoffs in Orlando, the same three contenders appear to have strengthened their hold on the title race.
Continue reading “The 2020 NBA Title Chase Still Looks Like a Three Horse Race”
Previously, I broke down film from the Bucks and Lakers game at the Staples Center. Now, I want to talk about what I saw from the March 5th game between the Clippers and Rockets.
Overall, this was a game Houston will want to forget. The Rockets were down 30 points midway through the 4th quarter partially due to 3 of 37 3-point shooting up to that point; they wound up cutting the final margin to 15 points in garbage time. Shooting can run hot and cold and every team throws up a clunker like this occasionally. Going beyond the score though, I think there are interesting things in the tape to break down for each side.
Continue reading “Insights from a close watch of Clippers at Rockets”
There is a play in the Bucks vs. Lakers game from March 6th that captures something fundamental about how Milwaukee plays on offense. The play begins with 7:03 left in the 4th quarter, after Giannis snatches the rebound from a missed Anthony Davis jumper. The Bucks are down 8, trying to bridge a gap created by a dominant 3rd quarter performance by LA.
Continue reading “Insights from a close watch of Bucks at Lakers”
The 2016 election had a historic Electoral College/popular vote split. What does this mean for 2020?
As most politically aware observers know, Donald Trump lost the 2016 presidential popular vote to Hillary Clinton. In fact, Mrs. Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by about 2.1% points, which is roughly in line with the 2.4% popular vote margin of victory that George W. Bush secured in the 2004 election. Mr. Trump won the presidency thanks to his relative strength in the Electoral College; he secured 306 pledged Electoral College votes, a majority of the 538 cast. To understand his advantage in the 2016 electoral vote, it helps to understand the concepts of the tipping point state and the Electoral College Lean.
Continue reading “Will the Electoral College carry Trump to victory in 2020?”