As most politically aware observers know, Donald Trump lost the 2016 presidential popular vote to Hillary Clinton. In fact, Mrs. Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 by about 2.1% points, which is roughly in line with the 2.4% popular vote margin of victory that George W. Bush secured in the 2004 election. Mr. Trump won the presidency thanks to his relative strength in the Electoral College; he secured 306 pledged Electoral College votes, a majority of the 538 cast. To understand his advantage in the 2016 electoral vote, it helps to understand the concepts of the tipping point state and the Electoral College Lean.
The 2016 election had a historic Electoral College/popular vote split. What does this mean for 2020?