Expected Points Gained, A Framework For Evaluating Actions On A Basketball Court

What is more valuable, an offensive rebound or a defensive rebound? Consult Expected Points Gained.

The currency of a basketball game is points.  This is obvious.  After all, this is the one thing we add up to determine who won and who lost.

This really simple insight actually has a lot of value as a framework for evaluating everything that happens on the court.  Each action that a player takes, be it good or bad, has to have its effect traced back to the scoreboard to be properly measured.  Of course, some actions, like made jumpers and rebounds, are neatly recorded in the box-score and others, like contesting a shot or moving the ball quickly to keep an offensive action going, are not.  But, at the end of the day, we really need to tie everything back to points.

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