With the 2018 NFL season underway, I decided to release some work on my first NFL project: a team rating and prediction system.
Go to Ratings
Go to Weekly Picks
Motivating this project was a simple question. How much should we adjust our thinking about a team based on the result of 1 game? This has always been a question which has intrigued me.
We go into a new football season with some general expectations of the ability level of each team. Many of our expectations come from their past performance, but some new information is also added with offseason signings, trades, injuries, etc… Of course, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding each team.
Then we witness week 1! Some teams look like underrated breakout candidates, and others flop. Hot takes abound. But how much information can 1 game really give us?
How The Rating System Works
Continue reading “Threes and Layups NFL Team Ratings, Explained”